Deciphering an epidemic of epic proportion: the role of state and tobacco industry in tobacco control in post-liberalized India (1990-2017)

In this seminar, Upendra Bhojani will present an overview of the research he aims to conduct as part of the India Alliance fellowship for the next 5 years. The purpose is to seek comments/suggestions/critique for refining the proposal. About 3500 Indians die every day due to tobacco-attributable illnesses. Despite several regulatory measures, there has been a marginal decline in tobacco use in the last two decades. In fact, since 1990s, tobacco production and sales have increased. Therefore, this research aims to understand the role played by the state policies (related to tobacco) and the tobacco industry actions during 1990-2017. I will conduct the study in three phases. In Phase-1, I will map public policies related to tobacco in this period. In will use quantitative data to explore associations between the tobacco policies and the trends in tobacco production and consumption. In phase-2 I will use qualitative data to understand how the tobacco industry actors influence tobacco policies in India. How do governments in India respond to the industry influence as well as their own varying (often conflicting) interests in tobacco? Based on these insights, in the phase-3, I will select ten Indian states: five positive (significant decline in tobacco prevalence over time) and five negative (status quo or increase in tobacco prevalence) cases. I will use qualitative comparative analysis to understand the combinations of measures (policies, implementation, tobacco industry) that best explain a significant reduction in tobacco use prevalence.